From Kris Vogt, President, Coldwell Banker Sacramento/Lake Tahoe
With 2012 well underway, there are very encouraging signs that the nation’s economy and job market are finally starting to gain momentum. If this trend continues in the months ahead, it bodes well for the recovery in housing – both here in Northern California and around the country.The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the final quarter of last year, according to figures released by the federal government this month. This level was a sharp increase from the third quarter’s 1.8 percent rate. And there are indications that the latest GDP figure could actually be revised higher due to wholesale inventories rising in December.
Even more encouraging for real estate is the fact that the labor market is steadily improving. Most analysts agree that in order to have a self-sustaining recovery in the housing market we must first have a significant turnaround in the job market. There are indications that could be happening at long last.
Initial weekly unemployment claims fell 15,000 to 358,000 in a new report by the Labor Department. An even better trend gauge — the four-week average — fell to its lowest level since April 2008, the period before the financial crisis. And the unemployment rate has fallen to a three-year low of 8.3 percent.
One other bullish indicator for the housing market is solid gains in the stock market, especially in the housing sector. The S&P index is up more than 7 percent so far this year (as of February 10) and up more than 16 percent since late November.
No one can predict, of course, where stocks go from here and it’s not unreasonable to assume they could continue to bounce around given the sovereign debt crisis in Europe. But the stock market gains certainly are helping all of our 401k portfolios and perhaps bolstering the confidence of potential homebuyers.
The housing industry has fared better than many stocks on Wall Street. While housing starts are expected to climb 15-20 percent this year, the stock prices for homebuilders themselves have spiked from 20 percent to as much as 134 percent since August, according to a recent story in USA Today.
“Talk is turning from when housing will hit bottom to whether it’s time to buy housing stocks and count on the sector to propel the economy again,” the USA Today said in its February 9 article Home builders and investors both see signs of a turn.
To be sure, the nation’s housing market is still facing a number of challenges, as USA Today pointed out, from tight credit to glut of bank owned properties in many markets. And the recent $25 billion settlement by the nation’s biggest mortgage banks could spur more foreclosures in the near term.
In a speech before the National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that, “We need to continue to develop and implement policies that will help the housing sector get back on its feet.”
Bernanke argued that overly tight credit in mortgage markets could be holding back a strong rebound in the real estate sector. He called on lenders and regulators to look at rules and practices that may hold back the origination of sound mortgages. He also has championed a plan to convert foreclosed homes into rentals.
But despite the challenges, there is good reason to believe the housing market is gradually turning the corner in many areas.
For most of the country, the inventory of homes for sale actually is falling while sales volumes have been picking up since last year. And affordability levels for homeownership have never been better, thanks to historically low interest rates and attractive home pricing.
We’ve seen the improvement right here in Northern California. According to a new report by the California Association of Realtors, January home sales rose 4.4 percent in the Bay Area when compared with the figures from last year. There was a 10.6 percent increase in Santa Cruz County, a 4 percent increase in Sacramento County and a 3.5 percent increase in Placer County. Prices did ease 8.2 percent in Monterey County.
We continue to see growing demand by very serious buyers looking to purchase homes. And while some are scouring the landscape for bargain basement distressed properties, many are seeking good homes at fair prices. And there continues to be a very strong demand for properties in the middle and upper ends of the market, too.
The real problem we’re facing here in the Northern California isn’t a lack of buyers; it’s not enough sellers.
Many homeowners who would like to sell their homes have been sitting on the sidelines, still wrongly believing that the market is in the depths of a recession. They still fear that they will have to take drastic price cuts in order to sell. I’m afraid that the news hasn’t gotten out to them that things have changed for the better over the past year or two.
Sellers no longer must sell their properties at fire-sale prices to get buyers’ attention. In fact, fairly priced homes that are staged well and located in desirable neighborhoods are not only being sold relatively quickly these days, but in some cases with multiple offers.
So if you’ve been thinking about buying or selling a home, there may not be a better time than right now. For buyers, mortgage interest rates are still below 4 percent for many 30-year fixed-rate loans and pricing is attractive in many neighborhoods. For sellers, there are scores of well-qualified buyers ready to purchase your home at reasonable prices.
No one knows what the future holds, but as the economy and the job market continue to gain momentum, there’s every reason to believe that the housing market will follow suit as well. A professional Realtor can help you decide if now is the right time for you to market your property or to find the next home of your dreams.
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This article was not written by Jack Edwards, as this blog notes automatically at the top of the page. I cannot change the automatic notation at the top which is created by WordPress. The article was written by Kris Vogt, President of Coldwell Banker Sacramento/Lake Tahoe. I hope it has been of value to you. Don’t hesitate to email us with any suggestions that will make this document better for you and your fellow homeowners!
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www.Facebook.com/ElkGroveRealEstate. For information about properties available for sale and for more information for buyers and sellers, please visit our website at www.ElkGroveRealEstate.com and don’t hesitate to give us a call or drop us an email with your questions.